THE DTSB
The DTSB determines the Probable Cause of this accident to be Pilot Error, in that the pilot elected to begin his trip well before sunrise, becoming airborne at around 6:07 am local time. While the METAR at the departure airport was only very cold and windy, the ground visibility was good. However the weather forecasts for the route included “VFR NOT RECOMENDED” due to areas of low visibility and mountain obscuration in the areas that the flight would be traversing. The accident flight did make an abrupt course reversal to an opposite heading , then a further right turn to an east heading in the final two minutes of flight just before the crash. It is unclear whether the non instrument rated pilot became spatially disoriented upon entering IMC conditions, or possibly flew directly into steeply rising terrain in search of visual ground contact while IMC. In any case, the course reversal was out of necessity, it is likely that the reason for that sudden course reversal was unexpected IMC and reduced visibility. The crash area is extremely rugged and offered no ground lights for horizon situational awareness. The pilot planned to remain VFR on his intended route and stayed within a few thousand feet of the high terrain during the early portion of the flight, eventually descending and reversing course, likely searching for an escape from the IMC conditions. The flight was operated well above the freezing level for that area, so airframe ice would have been likely immediately upon entering IMC conditions. The aircraft was located 31 hours after takeoff where rescue workers reached the site after being lowered by a Utah National Gaurd Huey helicopter. This narrative will be updated as new information becomes available.